Collecting 90s parallel other than MJ/Kobe

[siuwongkee]

This is a topic I have been discussing with my friends for awhile. Because of the history (in short I overspent when I was 18 and put my family in debts 20 years ago) 99% of the feedback when I told people I am collecting again is super negative. To me, from an investment point of view, there will be little reasons a 90s star's card price will increase or decrease drastically. And it is usually wise, in case the supply is limited, to invest where demands are higher, for 90s players, it will be MJ/Kobe and for 90s parallel sets it will be PMG. But tbh, if I am going to invest my money, 90s parallel will NEVER be my pick. So I mainly take this as an entertainment rather than an investment.

Put things like this, I would like to know how you guys think about card price in 20 years for 90s parallels of players other than MJ/Kobe. We might have different tiers, like I assume Shaq, Pippen, Iverson Duncan will be the one follow MJ and Kobe. And Penny, Hill, Kidd and some the next tier. Then we have some fan favourite.

To me, I think people are right to point out, in 20/30 years, most die hard fans of these players might be gone and the demand of the cards will drop. But I think some sets will keep the price or even increased in value some how. Again, it is hard to say because even econ theories are not strong inductive arguments; but, I guess one of the fun part of collecting is to "guess", what will happen and see what happens fit your insight.

[AbraCalabro]

I think that the longevity on perception of value and the prices depends on how long the people holding the cards can maintain that perception. There are a lot of guys looking to capitalize off the mindset they hope to create in people who are interested in cards. Some times all you have to do is plant the idea and you can sell anything as long as they believe it. Now you have many wealthy buyers in cards so people take it seriously and it is in the interests of the people holding those cards to maintain public interest in the cards, so I think it is solely dependent on that. Interest may exist, but value is more contrived.

We also know that price fixing is common, many of us have seen it with MJ cards over 10 years ago and we also saw it more recently with LBJ / RPA so many are more careful now. As time goes on, I don't think interest will continue unless the people who built the hype continue to push it.

[mindcycle]

Yeah as Abra said, a lot of the current hype for rare 90's parallels has come from those who are looking to capitalize off this stuff. That and guys with deep pockets going after the sets, or just to show off on social. I don't have a huge problem with the later, but it definitely decreases supply so player and/or team collectors either have to pay up or find other cards to chase.

Case and point, I bought all of my Nuggets PMG reds for $100 or less between 2012-2017. We're talking Mcdyess, Dale Ellis, LaPhonso Ellis. Now PMG reds of those guys are are like 2k.

Will they still be 2k in 20 years? I doubt it.. Reason being is anyone who watched them play will be in their 50's or 60's and probably not actively collecting at that point. The generational talents like MJ, Kobe, even Duncan, Iverson, may still be remembered, but as you go from there probably not. In my mind, it's similar to someone from our generation wanting a Micky Mantle or Babe Ruth. We didn't see those guys play, but their legacy will always be there and thus their stuff will likely remain collectable for many decades to come.

Now talking sets. I hate to say it, but the only way I could see a whole set remaining collectable is if they guys currently pumping them (nefariously or not) stick around. Once those guys leave or move on and you don't have that constant "push", the allure dies down and less people will care. Kids collecting right now will be chasing rare Prizm stuff in 20 years because those are the players they grew up with. They won't give two shits about Dale Ellis.

[dengbang]

Kids collecting right now will be chasing rare Prizm stuff in 20 years because those are the players they grew up with.

Couldn't agree with this more.
Collectibles aren't investment pieces. We collect them because of nostalgia, plain and simple. I'd be worried if I poured tens of thousands into 90s cards not knowing the market conditions prior to the boom.

Take the 1998-99 Topps East/West Kobe/Jordan card for example. There wasn't any demand for this card among collectors until a new narrative was written by flippers. I remember many Jordan collectors didn't like the design and it was reflected in the low value, ~$20. Now it's about $500 for the base version. Sooner or later the market will return to what a collector is willing to pay and not what a person can flip the card for.

This isn't an established market where some of the players are billionaires competing against one another. These are irrational sports fans trying to collect shiny pieces of manufactured cardboard.

[siuwongkee]

I think that the longevity on perception of value and the prices depends on how long the people holding the cards can maintain that perception. There are a lot of guys looking to capitalize off the mindset they hope to create in people who are interested in cards. Some times all you have to do is plant the idea and you can sell anything as long as they believe it. Now you have many wealthy buyers in cards so people take it seriously and it is in the interests of the people holding those cards to maintain public interest in the cards, so I think it is solely dependent on that. Interest may exist, but value is more contrived.

We also know that price fixing is common, many of us have seen it with MJ cards over 10 years ago and we also saw it more recently with LBJ / RPA so many are more careful now. As time goes on, I don't think interest will continue unless the people who built the hype continue to push it.

Undoubtedly. This is what happening for JP PTCG. The price is sruging pretty much like sports cards in 20-21. Suddenly, the big shops stopped buying graded PTCG cards for 7 days. And cards dropped nearly 50-70%. (And then they just bought the card as usual after that 7 days) When you guys pointed out kids nowadays are not watching the players we watched in the 90s, it echoes the hype of collecting female characters. I have zero doubt 1999 Charizard will keep its value in the long run, but I doubt the character cards will keep having value in 20-30 years. Of course I cannot say that for sure, we are in a weird world now.

On fixing, I suppoe some people has been doing this on TD. His card price surged unreasonably, like the 1997 Platinum Medallion and a few e-x2001 now. But I am really not sure how to value other cards, like I have a 1998 Gold Allen Iverson PMG, I told my wife it should be the most expensive one in my collection but I cannot put a price tag on it. Maybe 10-20k current market?

Yeah as Abra said, a lot of the current hype for rare 90's parallels has come from those who are looking to capitalize off this stuff. That and guys with deep pockets going after the sets, or just to show off on social. I don't have a huge problem with the later, but it definitely decreases supply so player and/or team collectors either have to pay up or find other cards to chase.

Case and point, I bought all of my Nuggets PMG reds for $100 or less between 2012-2017. We're talking Mcdyess, Dale Ellis, LaPhonso Ellis. Now PMG reds of those guys are are like 2k.

Will they still be 2k in 20 years? I doubt it.. Reason being is anyone who watched them play will be in their 50's or 60's and probably not actively collecting at that point. The generational talents like MJ, Kobe, even Duncan, Iverson, may still be remembered, but as you go from there probably not. In my mind, it's similar to someone from our generation wanting a Micky Mantle or Babe Ruth. We didn't see those guys play, but their legacy will always be there and thus their stuff will likely remain collectable for many decades to come.

Now talking sets. I hate to say it, but the only way I could see a whole set remaining collectable is if they guys currently pumping them (nefariously or not) stick around. Once those guys leave or move on and you don't have that constant "push", the allure dies down and less people will care. Kids collecting right now will be chasing rare Prizm stuff in 20 years because those are the players they grew up with. They won't give two shits about Dale Ellis.

Maybe because I have a stronger background on TCG, I do not have the mindset to complete a set. I rather love to have 4 copies of the same cards. My point of view towards 90s card is:

1: My budget does not allow me to collect MJ/Kobe. (And I have zero of them from my 90s collection,)
2: So I ONLY collect cards I have or sets I have from the 90s. (Except a recent impluse purchase of an Iverson Gold stars after not buying anything for a month) And there are basically 4 players from the list. Duncan, Iverson, Penny and Ray. So I got the Penny Emboseed Gold Refractors because I have the Duncan Gold.

Everything you guys say is legit, I think a few things I would add. Despite collectors from the modern era does not see most of these players play. As long as

1: Cards company will release these player's product. (Mainly for us but still they are in the sets and it keeps collectors wonder why the hell they are in)
2: Shoes are selling. (Many people collect shoes and it keeps some of their popularity)

Then I do not have a huge problem collecting the 90s parallel even at the current market price. (Well, even they drop 50% or 70% in 30 years, at least way way way way way way better than the money I spend on apps.) In the end, it is not a pure investment, it is more like, I love them, I will be glad saying you know these cards worth a lot and a bit bitter to say, these are good players but people just do not know their value when they lost the value. This is how I treat the hobby. (But I guess many 90s collectors are coming back seeing the market boom, I am one of them, not so sure if they will still interested in the market when cards boom like what we are experiencing)

[siuwongkee]

Kids collecting right now will be chasing rare Prizm stuff in 20 years because those are the players they grew up with.

Couldn't agree with this more.
Collectibles aren't investment pieces. We collect them because of nostalgia, plain and simple. I'd be worried if I poured tens of thousands into 90s cards not knowing the market conditions prior to the boom.

Take the 1998-99 Topps East/West Kobe/Jordan card for example. There wasn't any demand for this card among collectors until a new narrative was written by flippers. I remember many Jordan collectors didn't like the design and it was reflected in the low value, ~$20. Now it's about $500 for the base version. Sooner or later the market will return to what a collector is willing to pay and not what a person can flip the card for.

This isn't an established market where some of the players are billionaires competing against one another. These are irrational sports fans trying to collect shiny pieces of manufactured cardboard.

That's why I wonder what will happen to 90s parallel. Their supply is low. The demand, I am really not sure. Just like if I see a e-x2001 Penny/Iverson future or Duncan now selling at 1K or or even 2k. I will buy every piece I see. Even you are telling me, man, 1k will be 0.5k in 30 years, I really do not care. So other than the super big fishes, how many small fish like me are there?

Furthermore, assuming some collectors enjoy collecting for show, they can collect all cards that they can show off. (That's why I wonder, those big fishes, if it is purely a desire of showing off, shouldnt they buy modern cards?)

In the end, I really do not know about sports cards, to TCG, as long as the game is there, people will chase after RARE things.