When will 90s chase parallels start adjusting?

[siuwongkee]

From my understanding, most cards are adjusting. Some people have suggested many iconic 90s cards like Jordan Jambalaya have fallen alot from the peak. Yet, from my own research on chase parallels (Except Red PMG) like Rubies, EC, metal fusion, CPMG are staying very strong and for those that have not been popped up awhile, they might even break record sales. Honestly, I do not understand why it is the case, from my perspective, I think it is likely a low demand and low supply market. And most collectors are OK with having 1 copy for collection (Unlike me, I basically have just 25 cards on my wishlist and I am trying very best to get as many I can as possible) and many of them should have already FiNISHED their collection for 90s cards. So I do not understand why the market is like this.

Yesterday, I told my family, I am planning to raise a small card collecting funds and one of my uncles asked me, "How do you see the card price in 10 years." Honestly, if you are asking me about ultra modern cards from Panini, I will say 99% will have no value in 10 years. And for classic cards like Jordan rookie, I suppose it will at best hold values but hardly another push, unless Fanatics really got a Jordan copyright or they can 10x the hobby somehow with some collectors from the 90s. But for the 90s parallels, I honestly have no idea, I think it is an emotive market, and as times goes by, the only thing that might keep the value of these 90s parallels other than MJ and Kobe will be it historical importance of a few sets. (Likely 97 PMG and rubies, I do not know)

So what does everyone think?

[AbraCalabro]

From my understanding, most cards are adjusting. Some people have suggested many iconic 90s cards like Jordan Jambalaya have fallen alot from the peak. Yet, from my own research on chase parallels (Except Red PMG) like Rubies, EC, metal fusion, CPMG are staying very strong and for those that have not been popped up awhile, they might even break record sales. Honestly, I do not understand why it is the case, from my perspective, I think it is likely a low demand and low supply market. And most collectors are OK with having 1 copy for collection (Unlike me, I basically have just 25 cards on my wishlist and I am trying very best to get as many I can as possible) and many of them should have already FiNISHED their collection for 90s cards. So I do not understand why the market is like this.

Yesterday, I told my family, I am planning to raise a small card collecting funds and one of my uncles asked me, "How do you see the card price in 10 years." Honestly, if you are asking me about ultra modern cards from Panini, I will say 99% will have no value in 10 years. And for classic cards like Jordan rookie, I suppose it will at best hold values but hardly another push, unless Fanatics really got a Jordan copyright or they can 10x the hobby somehow with some collectors from the 90s. But for the 90s parallels, I honestly have no idea, I think it is an emotive market, and as times goes by, the only thing that might keep the value of these 90s parallels other than MJ and Kobe will be it historical importance of a few sets. (Likely 97 PMG and rubies, I do not know)

So what does everyone think?

For the CPMG I can chime in and tell you that I got low balled by a number of high rollers not long ago and it sold for a miserable price.

I also think that there are enough people with a lot of money who are heavily invested and have a lot of money parked in sports cards so they will do whatever it takes to protect their investments. Considering how easy it is to fool people about prices and record sales and hide the corruption, I do not know if prices will stabilize for long, or even drop. It's not a stretch of the imagination, or even crazy to think that the market / prices are being propped up artificially. Fanatics has a lot of incentive to keep people hyped up and so do individuals with money invested. I have been selling off and it's difficult to move cards from the forums, most people are very picky and will try to low ball. I have also noticed on eBay that most finished auction listings end for a lot less than the listings that are buy it now, the buy it now listings have unreasonably high prices. Either way, the whole entire thing is one big mess, there is no real order any more, but there is 100% with certainty, manipulation of prices, the guys in high end, especially at the top, know how to manipulate and how to deal with money, they know all the tricks, they work in finance themselves and have access to other professionals in marketing and advertising. The huge financial incentive has to go away, the money has to die, in order for normalcy to return. Many also think they are sitting on the best card ever and if it's serial numbered, it's worth 5-10x the actual sale value and sales don't happen. It's all in a bad place, but if the money dies off and goes away, things will get better. The problem has always been the big money.

I can already tell you that some of the nicer cards I have get low balled by the high end guys and these are the same guys who hype prices and brag about how much money they spend. It's a big fat lie. I suspect in 10 years a lot can change, geopolitics can change things very quickly as well. I think the only thing that will keep the values up is a concentrated effort by the money people to keep prices artificially high and they can always just buy their own cards back and high prices, we've seen it before and they have the money to throw at cards. I've been watching cards for way over 10 years and everything I just typed is the result of observation, this is the way it has been going, it's all influenced by the money people. Big money is the worst thing for this hobby.

The short answer to your question, what does everyone think, for me, I'd say it all depends on the money of the few and the stupidity of the majority.

[siuwongkee]

From my understanding, most cards are adjusting. Some people have suggested many iconic 90s cards like Jordan Jambalaya have fallen alot from the peak. Yet, from my own research on chase parallels (Except Red PMG) like Rubies, EC, metal fusion, CPMG are staying very strong and for those that have not been popped up awhile, they might even break record sales. Honestly, I do not understand why it is the case, from my perspective, I think it is likely a low demand and low supply market. And most collectors are OK with having 1 copy for collection (Unlike me, I basically have just 25 cards on my wishlist and I am trying very best to get as many I can as possible) and many of them should have already FiNISHED their collection for 90s cards. So I do not understand why the market is like this.

Yesterday, I told my family, I am planning to raise a small card collecting funds and one of my uncles asked me, "How do you see the card price in 10 years." Honestly, if you are asking me about ultra modern cards from Panini, I will say 99% will have no value in 10 years. And for classic cards like Jordan rookie, I suppose it will at best hold values but hardly another push, unless Fanatics really got a Jordan copyright or they can 10x the hobby somehow with some collectors from the 90s. But for the 90s parallels, I honestly have no idea, I think it is an emotive market, and as times goes by, the only thing that might keep the value of these 90s parallels other than MJ and Kobe will be it historical importance of a few sets. (Likely 97 PMG and rubies, I do not know)

So what does everyone think?

For the CPMG I can chime in and tell you that I got low balled by a number of high rollers not long ago and it sold for a miserable price.

I also think that there are enough people with a lot of money who are heavily invested and have a lot of money parked in sports cards so they will do whatever it takes to protect their investments. Considering how easy it is to fool people about prices and record sales and hide the corruption, I do not know if prices will stabilize for long, or even drop. It's not a stretch of the imagination, or even crazy to think that the market / prices are being propped up artificially. Fanatics has a lot of incentive to keep people hyped up and so do individuals with money invested. I have been selling off and it's difficult to move cards from the forums, most people are very picky and will try to low ball. I have also noticed on eBay that most finished auction listings end for a lot less than the listings that are buy it now, the buy it now listings have unreasonably high prices. Either way, the whole entire thing is one big mess, there is no real order any more, but there is 100% with certainty, manipulation of prices, the guys in high end, especially at the top, know how to manipulate and how to deal with money, they know all the tricks, they work in finance themselves and have access to other professionals in marketing and advertising. The huge financial incentive has to go away, the money has to die, in order for normalcy to return. Many also think they are sitting on the best card ever and if it's serial numbered, it's worth 5-10x the actual sale value and sales don't happen. It's all in a bad place, but if the money dies off and goes away, things will get better. The problem has always been the big money.

I can already tell you that some of the nicer cards I have get low balled by the high end guys and these are the same guys who hype prices and brag about how much money they spend. It's a big fat lie. I suspect in 10 years a lot can change, geopolitics can change things very quickly as well. I think the only thing that will keep the values up is a concentrated effort by the money people to keep prices artificially high and they can always just buy their own cards back and high prices, we've seen it before and they have the money to throw at cards. I've been watching cards for way over 10 years and everything I just typed is the result of observation, this is the way it has been going, it's all influenced by the money people. Big money is the worst thing for this hobby.

The short answer to your question, what does everyone think, for me, I'd say it all depends on the money of the few and the stupidity of the majority.

Thanks for your sharing, it means a lot to me. I think to me, my dilemma is whether other than the monthly entertainment budget, I shift some of my savings to buy a few more cards now. TBH, if cards tanked, like it went back to the 97 prices, I cannot say I will be really sad. Because I love collecting things and I just want to get the cards I like. I spent way more on apps in the past 10 years and 99.99% of the apps shut down. (So it goes to zero in value) So like I have been buying cards since last May, I will not think too much whether I will keep buying 90s parallels with the budget. (It is a hobby and hobby not necessary retain in value)

But if I, let's say switch, 50k from my savings for some cards, just because I am very stressed because of a civil lawsuit and other things in my life, (So more like a treat myself action, if it is my brother it will be a watch) then knowing every card is dropping, it seems quite silly to spend the money this way. It is almost like, I love diamond and I buy a nice natural diamond now, knowing the lab grown dimaond is going to crash the naturaol diamond (it already did) in the coming years. Then it seems weird to spend money this way.

I can guess who are the people you are talking about, I have not been offered anything in my life, but from the example of PMG, I believe the market is not big. Else, you cannot explain why parallels from the same era with lower attention are that cheap. (Some are cheaper than 1999 beckett price)

[mindcycle]

The 90’s market for certain parallels that aren’t buried in PCs or thrown away at this point is largely controlled by a small number of people. I honestly couldn’t say if they have ill intent or just want it all for themselves, but it is what it is and with social media we can pretty much confirm that is currently happening.

Let's theoretically say 10 guys own 25% of the print run of PMG cards from all releases. The number might seem small, but when you factor in that only 30% of the print run will ever be available to buy today or in the near future (factoring in what they have of course and they aren't selling) then that’s a very small number of cards a normal collector could actually buy. Thus competition for anything that comes up for sale will keep prices high. Again theoretical as we won't ever know the actual numbers or percentages but I think you probably get the point.

Until those cards land back into the hands of collectors or sellers again prices will remain high as long as the demand is there. One could say the constant barrage of social media posts about these cards helps keep the demand high, and one could also say that may be an orchestrated effort. But conspiracy theories aside you can then see how the market could easily be manipulated if the desire was there. And even if everyone in the group wasn't concerned about propping values, the power of suggestion is a real thing and even the most humble of social media posts talking about a card/parallel/insert/set/etc can inevitably lead to a buying frenzy. The current social media driven collecting world is all about status, for a lot of people at least, and joining the big boy "mine is bigger than yours" club is often on the top on those people's checklist for whatever reason.

My suggestion on dropping big money on "rare" 90's cards in today's environment is simply this.. "Don't do it." Now that of course is a broad statement and there are caveats to that. One being if you have the disposable income and don't care if the card goes to zero, then by all means go for it. In 5 or even 10 years these cards may not be available at the rate they are today. Especially if you subscribe to the theory that active hobby participants will have dropped significantly by then, which is what I believe.

Now the flip side, and why I say don't do it.. That's mainly because I think anything other than Jordan, Kobe, "insert generation talent here", is not going to hold value long term. After 90's collectors hit retirement age most of us probably aren't going to want to spend 3k on a John Starks 97 PMG (yes, that was a real sale I saw, lol) because we'll have left the hobby at that point or won't be nearly as active. Taking John Starks cards as an example I almost guarantee that card won't be a 3k card in 10 or 20 years because.. A, current active hobby participants won't have any idea who he was, B, there won't be an active hype train for 90's cards like we are seeing today, and C, the current collector base at that time will have likely been born in the 2000's or later and have zero connection to anything that came out in the 90's. I also believe that even Jordan and Kobe won't ever go back to pandemic pricing, or even today's pricing, once the pumpers are gone. I kind of already covered it above so same basic principle applies, but if you use common sense it's easy to see why a Jordan PMG red that was only going for a few thousand until just a few years ago suddenly turning in a card "worth" a quarter million or more.

[siuwongkee]

The 90’s market for certain parallels that aren’t buried in PCs or thrown away at this point is largely controlled by a small number of people. I honestly couldn’t say if they have ill intent or just want it all for themselves, but it is what it is and with social media we can pretty much confirm that is currently happening.

Thank you for the very detailed explanation. I suppose some of them really do not have ill intent. It is like I talk to my friends, if I have 10x the money, I will basically get every cards I want, as many as possible. Like I have 4 profiles 3 Duncan and still looking to see if I can get 9. So if I have 10x the money, it will be Duncan rubies. If I have 100x the money, maybe will be Jordan PMG and so on and all these cards unless I really broke, will be something like some watches and jewels I have, will never be having any financial value in the books. However, from what I see, not many collectors are like me in having more than 1 copy of the card. I suppose some of them just take the extra copies for trade, so maybe they do not have the inention to hype or push the market, but with the money they have, it is likely, John Starks 1.5-2k? What a fair deal, let's buy one more for trade. (Of course there might be people trying to hype the market for gains, notably Tim Duncan cards and the Brady Rookie championship ticket BGS 8.5)

So back to the story, I guess, setting up a fund NOW, is really a poor financial decision. Because as illustrated by both of you, it is a bad timing, maybe some people will come into 90s market seeing it is doing Ok comparing to other eras (you do not understand those silly people) but it seems like, the market, for instance, for Penny parallels, is all about the 20-30 people. With those loaded with money supporting the bottom, it seems the card price will be like that for awhile. And if I insist in buying 90s parallel, maybe I can shift to cards that those collectors basically ignored. (Like the upper deck parallels)

Anyways thanks for everything

[darz90scardz]

OP, I’ve followed your Instagram story posts for the last couple months, so I may have a better idea of your situation than those who have only read your forum posts.

I apologize if I sound too presumptive, but especially in regards to your most recent IG poll, it seems like you’re looking to validate a decision you already know is financially detrimental. I understand this is a stressful time, but if I’ve been reading your history correctly, this is how you got here in the first place.

I know the poll results are already in favor of you starting a parallel fund, but I don’t think they’d look the same if the people voting knew the full context of your situation.

[AbraCalabro]

Thanks for your sharing, it means a lot to me. I think to me, my dilemma is whether other than the monthly entertainment budget, I shift some of my savings to buy a few more cards now. TBH, if cards tanked, like it went back to the 97 prices, I cannot say I will be really sad. Because I love collecting things and I just want to get the cards I like. I spent way more on apps in the past 10 years and 99.99% of the apps shut down. (So it goes to zero in value) So like I have been buying cards since last May, I will not think too much whether I will keep buying 90s parallels with the budget. (It is a hobby and hobby not necessary retain in value)

But if I, let's say switch, 50k from my savings for some cards, just because I am very stressed because of a civil lawsuit and other things in my life, (So more like a treat myself action, if it is my brother it will be a watch) then knowing every card is dropping, it seems quite silly to spend the money this way. It is almost like, I love diamond and I buy a nice natural diamond now, knowing the lab grown dimaond is going to crash the naturaol diamond (it already did) in the coming years. Then it seems weird to spend money this way.

I can guess who are the people you are talking about, I have not been offered anything in my life, but from the example of PMG, I believe the market is not big. Else, you cannot explain why parallels from the same era with lower attention are that cheap. (Some are cheaper than 1999 beckett price)

It's really tough to determine what will happen. I think it's a safe bet that certainly there are corrupt people with a lot of money who want to bleed our hobby dry and they will never be satisfied. On a personal level, I can no longer take current prices seriously, I have quit set building, I have sold off most of my player collection and now don't do much spending, or buying compared to before. I focus only on certain cards and if they show up at the right price, great, if not, then I keep my money. Even now NFL Football cards, the prices on them don't make any sense either - if I see a card that I really like, the price has to be right, yet there are people who are asking thousands for a card that is no higher than 250. This is not the hobby we grew up enjoying anymore, the parasites have made it into their own racket.

Which leads me to answer your point about the PMG example as not being a big market, I agree, it's not a big market, because only a small handful of people can afford those prices for those who want the cards. You can thank whales like turner, wegotstock99 and the people who hype up those prices they pay. There is another guy whose name I won't mention who brags and shows off his wealth online, but when dealing with him, he will low ball you BIG TIME. The sales prices for other parallels from the same era are lower, but when they are listed as a BIN / obo, the listing price is always a lot higher than the actual auction prices. I have been watching some cards since 2020...they are still listed high. So even with the other parallels, there are either people trying to make their money back, or rip you off.

I would focus on making smart purchases for stuff that TRULY means something to you. It's easy to buy stuff as a consolation, but as time goes on, you will ask yourself, "Why did I buy this crap?"

[siuwongkee]

OP, I’ve followed your Instagram story posts for the last couple months, so I may have a better idea of your situation than those who have only read your forum posts.

I apologize if I sound too presumptive, but especially in regards to your most recent IG poll, it seems like you’re looking to validate a decision you already know is financially detrimental. I understand this is a stressful time, but if I’ve been reading your history correctly, this is how you got here in the first place.

I know the poll results are already in favor of you starting a parallel fund, but I don’t think they’d look the same if the people voting knew the full context of your situation.

Firstly, I appreciate your comment, this is what a true friend will do.

I do the poll because I really want to know what people I interactive with feel about this. And I am surprised many of those people whom I talked with vote Yes. Because most of my friends at the TCG card shop, like you, they tell me do not. (They do not know much about sports cards, but I can explain to them refering to what happend for instance at yugioh.)

If you have read my post, you know I am very blunt. One of the biggest obstacles for me is my mother. I put my family in debts. So now, she worried a lot when I told her I collect again. Imagine a kid with a weekly allowance of $300, end up having a $80k debts within a year. And I am an adult managing my family's wealth.

So for now, after listening to all the comments here, it is very likely, I will do the fund, but it will be after the civil lawsuit and in case I win and I got paid.

[kingofsnake]

siuwongkee, I would advise not investing heavily in sports cards. This industry is in a way that it's nearly impossible to make significant money unless you a) already had cards before the Covid boom or b) cheat people. There is so much fraud in sports cards that I would only treat it as a hobby and nothing more - especially if you are responsible for your family's wellbeing.

[dengbang]

When you have to make these kinds of decisions, it is no longer a hobby. And if this is a financial decision then putting your money into 90s cards is not it. No offense to player collectors, myself included, only the rarest MJs, Kobes, and Lebrons have some sort of track record as maintaining/increasing in value regardless of economy. Sports cards is not like the art, books, or coins market. The legs currently propping up this market are sports gamblers. Not many people are buying to hold and many people that usually buy to hold are also flipping because it's just too easy to do that right now if you have the platform.

[siuwongkee]

It's really tough to determine what will happen. I think it's a safe bet that certainly there are corrupt people with a lot of money who want to bleed our hobby dry and they will never be satisfied. On a personal level, I can no longer take current prices seriously, I have quit set building, I have sold off most of my player collection and now don't do much spending, or buying compared to before. I focus only on certain cards and if they show up at the right price, great, if not, then I keep my money. Even now NFL Football cards, the prices on them don't make any sense either - if I see a card that I really like, the price has to be right, yet there are people who are asking thousands for a card that is no higher than 250. This is not the hobby we grew up enjoying anymore, the parasites have made it into their own racket.

Which leads me to answer your point about the PMG example as not being a big market, I agree, it's not a big market, because only a small handful of people can afford those prices for those who want the cards. You can thank whales like turner, wegotstock99 and the people who hype up those prices they pay. There is another guy whose name I won't mention who brags and shows off his wealth online, but when dealing with him, he will low ball you BIG TIME. The sales prices for other parallels from the same era are lower, but when they are listed as a BIN / obo, the listing price is always a lot higher than the actual auction prices. I have been watching some cards since 2020...they are still listed high. So even with the other parallels, there are either people trying to make their money back, or rip you off.

I would focus on making smart purchases for stuff that TRULY means something to you. It's easy to buy stuff as a consolation, but as time goes on, you will ask yourself, "Why did I buy this crap?"

I think the high BIN/obo is ecactly where we are now, everybody still thinks this is 2021. If you ask me, I usually just look at beckett price from 1999 (the year which I quit) I think below 10x of the price from there is ok for me. So I have been buying some SP profiles 3.

In the end, appreciate your comment.

siuwongkee, I would advise not investing heavily in sports cards. This industry is in a way that it's nearly impossible to make significant money unless you a) already had cards before the Covid boom or b) cheat people. There is so much fraud in sports cards that I would only treat it as a hobby and nothing more - especially if you are responsible for your family's wellbeing.

Thank you, I do not think I will say I am invest in sports cards. It is more like, I love natural diamond, and I am thinking should I buy a nice one for my birthday. But as we know natural diamond is tanking and do I really have no other options? For instance, I also like the One Piece card game, it is too early to tell if the game will be that interesting, but how they are printing cards make sense to me. So maybe I can get some One Piece card rather than 90s parallel.

When you have to make these kinds of decisions, it is no longer a hobby. And if this is a financial decision then putting your money into 90s cards is not it. No offense to player collectors, myself included, only the rarest MJs, Kobes, and Lebrons have some sort of track record as maintaining/increasing in value regardless of economy. Sports cards is not like the art, books, or coins market. The legs currently propping up this market are sports gamblers. Not many people are buying to hold and many people that usually buy to hold are also flipping because it's just too easy to do that right now if you have the platform.

I agree. It is not only sports cards, TCG as well. But I honestly like collecting things, and I need to think clearly what to do. After talking with you guys, I might start collecting one piece tcg instead.

[SacKingsCards]

I agree with kingofsnake's take: I think you should be considering any money you spend on cards totally lost forever as it would be if this was another hobby such as scrapbooking, rc cars, drones, legos, video games, mobile apps like you've mentioned, etc. Sure, is there a chance that your collection appreciates in value? Yeah. But that happens with a fraction of a percent of the cards out there and with how unregulated and easily manipulated the sports card market is.

But even if you choose not to chase 90s parallels right now, I don't think that means you have to shift away from collecting basketball cards. This is one of the messages I think needs to be shouted loudly across the hobby right now: there are a ton of incredible looking cards that barely cost anything out there to collect. It's actually a thread idea I had that maybe I'll make today about generating budget friendly ideas of cards to collect.

[siuwongkee]

I agree with kingofsnake's take: I think you should be considering any money you spend on cards totally lost forever as it would be if this was another hobby such as scrapbooking, rc cars, drones, legos, video games, mobile apps like you've mentioned, etc. Sure, is there a chance that your collection appreciates in value? Yeah. But that happens with a fraction of a percent of the cards out there and with how unregulated and easily manipulated the sports card market is.

But even if you choose not to chase 90s parallels right now, I don't think that means you have to shift away from collecting basketball cards. This is one of the messages I think needs to be shouted loudly across the hobby right now: there are a ton of incredible looking cards that barely cost anything out there to collect. It's actually a thread idea I had that maybe I'll make today about generating budget friendly ideas of cards to collect.

I think if I am not going in 90s parallels, it is likely I might buy some cards I owned in the past. (PSA 8) Or I will start collecting the new dragon ball TCG. In the end, I have the connection of getting card at cheaper price than others.