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Wemby vs Chet
Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:40 pm
by workingclasscards
Do you think Chet or Wemby has the better career/higher prices ten years from now? (assuming both are healthy)
A big plus for Wemby is his pre-draft hype and his gaudy stats with minute restrictions.
The powers that be in the hobby are really pumping Wemby and project his cards to sell in the six figures+ range.
The hobby will be patient with Wemby due to all the early money pumped into his cards.
However, I can't take his prices seriously until he can carry the Spurs into the play-in/playoffs.
I've never seen a generational talent join a team and they win less games than the year before.
Chet is not as talented, but he's still net positive player on a team that can contend for years.
Chet was not as hyped going into the draft and his stats are worse, but playing well on a talented team is underrated.
Chet is also closer to winning MVP or All NBA selection due to being on a team that is contending.
If OKC can keep their current core for 2-3 years, they could be a new version of 2012 OKC except they win a title.
I pick Chet because his career arc and impact are easier to follow.
Wemby is the better player, but there is too much chaos in his talent and the team around him.
Unless Wemby becomes a basketball God or he leaves the Spurs, I can see him in basketball purgatory.
Re: Wemby vs Chet
Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:46 pm
by mindcycle
My gut feeling is that neither of these guys will have cards worth anywhere close to what they are today. People have already built in multiple rings, MVPs, All Star appearances, etc.. into the prices they are paying right now. Stuff like this just never makes sense to me but we see it every year. You'd think people would wake up with Donic and Zion prices dropping like they did but that's wishful thinking I guess, lol
I know you mentioned assuming they are healthy, but I just have to point out that both of these guys are built like a beanstalk. It's just hard for me to believe that their body types will hold up long term in the NBA. They will definitely need some load management.
Tbh, I haven't watched enough of either to make a good judgement call on who will come out on top. However, I think in the here and now we can just enjoy what they bring to the table and hope they can make a solid career for themselves. The time of the big man is certainly happening nowadays and it's pretty enjoyable to watch regardless of who you are rooting for.
Re: Wemby vs Chet
Posted: Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:38 pm
by FrankAZHP
workingclasscards wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:40 pm
Do you think Chet or Wemby has the better career/higher prices ten years from now? (assuming both are healthy)
You say "assuming both are healthy". 10 years is a long ass time. A lot can happen in a decade. But I'll bite.
I'd say Wemby because I feel like he has more overall upside/skill which could help lead to rings even if he's on a rough team now.
But the values set on the Wemby Prizm parallel cards (especially for such shitty photography) is INSANE.
Wemby could be the next Duncan/Hakeem/DRobinson/InsertHoFerHere and still couldn't live up to these prices. It's near impossible.
It's not really any different from the speculation in every rookie class. It's just gotten more ridiculous since 2020. You'd think even the 2020 buyers should have enough experience from seeing the Zion hype by now.
I dunno. Putting any serious money into a guy who hasn't won a playoff game yet is never a gamble I make. I'll do the same thing for both of these guys that I do every year. I'll buy a single base Optic (used to be Chrome), and maybe some low end color that I see for cheap. I'll stash them in card savers in my PC, and pull them out in 10 years.
Here's my high rolling ass and what I've got for Chet. If he's bunk, oh well I wasted $6.75. If he's the next HoF big man I'm sitting on $120 value in 10 years ungraded.
1.75 2022-23 Donruss Optic Single Base Chet Holmgren (RC)
5.00 2022-23 Donruss Optic Single Purple Shock Chet Holmgren (RC)
I'm more interested in the other rookies of this class and how they'll do long term. Brandon Miller lookin like a beast, Thompson twins are great offensively and defensively and remember OTE was their high school years, Dereck Lively looking good etc. I've got a lot of good Chrome stuff of those guys too because I enjoy Chrome. :shrug:
Cool topic.
Re: Wemby vs Chet
Posted: Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:47 pm
by workingclasscards
FrankAZHP wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:38 pm
workingclasscards wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2024 8:40 pm
Do you think Chet or Wemby has the better career/higher prices ten years from now? (assuming both are healthy)
You say "assuming both are healthy". 10 years is a long ass time. A lot can happen in a decade. But I'll bite.
I'd say Wemby because I feel like he has more overall upside/skill which could help lead to rings even if he's on a rough team now.
But the values set on the Wemby Prizm parallel cards (especially for such shitty photography) is INSANE.
Wemby could be the next Duncan/Hakeem/DRobinson/InsertHoFerHere and still couldn't live up to these prices. It's near impossible.
It's not really any different from the speculation in every rookie class. It's just gotten more ridiculous since 2020. You'd think even the 2020 buyers should have enough experience from seeing the Zion hype by now.
I dunno. Putting any serious money into a guy who hasn't won a playoff game yet is never a gamble I make. I'll do the same thing for both of these guys that I do every year. I'll buy a single base Optic (used to be Chrome), and maybe some low end color that I see for cheap. I'll stash them in card savers in my PC, and pull them out in 10 years.
Here's my high rolling ass and what I've got for Chet. If he's bunk, oh well I wasted $6.75. If he's the next HoF big man I'm sitting on $120 value in 10 years ungraded.
1.75 2022-23 Donruss Optic Single Base Chet Holmgren (RC)
5.00 2022-23 Donruss Optic Single Purple Shock Chet Holmgren (RC)
I'm more interested in the other rookies of this class and how they'll do long term. Brandon Miller lookin like a beast, Thompson twins are great offensively and defensively and remember OTE was their high school years, Dereck Lively looking good etc. I've got a lot of good Chrome stuff of those guys too because I enjoy Chrome. :shrug:
Cool topic.
I bought a couple hoops premium blue cards as they are cheap and color matched.
Re: Wemby vs Chet
Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2024 12:19 am
by SacKingsCards
I agree with both posts above. I made a comment on a Facebook post recently and received flak for saying that I think Wemby is probably the worst value right now in basketball cards. Everything points to his cards becoming more affordable as time goes on: he was more hyped than Zion, he's been healthy and incredible as a rookie, and only a fraction of his rookie cards have been released thus far.
Like Mindcycle and Frank said, what would Wemby have to do to keep up this hype and market? A top 5 career ever? Top 10? And what happens when next season starts and he's had 30 releases worth of rookie cards floating around? With the Donruss Elite release he is now at over 500 unique rookie cards including inserts and parallels. Elite alone has 16 1/1s and 16 gold cards /10. The supply of his cards is going to continue to go up and up. I'm not even saying it's a bad thing - hopefully this will make his cards more affordable to those who want to collect him. But my goodness this stuff is madness. He single handedly makes ripping wax almost worth it. A base card from any release will automatically cover the cost of a blaster (unless you buy at full price). Bonkers.